Job Market for New Grads
The April employment report was better than expected. There were 115,000 jobs added (about twice analysts’ predictions) and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3 percent. This year, monthly job creation has averaged 76,000, which is better than last year’s anemic 10,000 a month, but it is not exactly stellar considering that the biggest publicly traded companies are making money hand over fist. (Analysts at Deutsche Bank say that we are seeing “one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years,” which has fueled the recent rise in stocks.)
That said, Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG says that the official unemployment rate (U-3), which counts people who don't have a job and are actively looking for one, is not telling the whole story. Instead, we should also consider the U-6 rate, which adds the folks who want a job and are available to work, but have gotten so discouraged that they've stopped actively applying (“marginally attached workers”). Since they're not “actively looking,” they are not included in U-3. Also not included in the broader measure are those working “part-time for economic reasons”. These are the workers who want full-time jobs but can only find part-time ones (or had their hours cut), and they’re counted as employed in U-3, even if they're only working 8 hours a week.
In April, the U-3 rate was 4.3 percent, and the U-6 increased to 8.2 percent, “two full percentage points above what we saw in 2019,” says Swonk. She also points to a trend worth watching: “the number of people leaving jobs fell, while those entering or reentering the labor market and unable to find a job rose...The result is a jobs number that looks better on paper than it feels to most workers.”
Job Outlook for College Class of 2026
The above results speak to a bubbling anxiety among young workers and soon-to-be graduates. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (based on March data), recent college grads (22-27) have an unemployment rate of 5.6 percent, which is lower than the 7.2 percent rate for all young workers, but a lot higher than the 3.1 percent rate for all college grads.
We’ve all heard stories about the difficulty of getting a job for many college grads over the past year or so, but the evidence is starting to show what’s happening. According to Indeed, “junior-level job postings fell 7% year-over-year in 2025, while senior-level postings rose 4%.” College grads are trying to determine how they will survive in a labor market that could see AI replace many of the coveted entry-level jobs that they seek. As a result, Monster’s 2026 State of the Graduate Report found 75 percent would accept a job they expect to leave within a year if it provides immediate income, which makes sense, especially if those grads are carrying student loans.
One thing that stood out to me in the report was the concept of job security. When asked about the top priorities when evaluating job offers, 67 percent said they would trade higher pay for long-term stability. In fact, job security has now edged out career growth as more important to the degree-holders. Security usually pops up when students are graduating into a recession, but by all measures, the economy is growing. I’m guessing that this is a combination of how hard it is to find a job and fear of AI.
To quell some of those anxieties, some smart people are trying to think about which skills are important as the AI revolution continues. Ezra Klein recently wrote an op-ed titled, “Why the A.I. Job Apocalypse (Probably) Won’t Happen,” in which he says “our ability to relate, sensitively and deeply, to other human beings will be a central and valuable skill.” He is more pessimistic about young people being able to be relational, but I have recently been uplifted by interactions with twenty-somethings, so I think it is entirely possible that AI forces the digital first generation to lean into who they are and how they relate to others.
For those in the job-hunting process, here is my handy, crowdsourced career advice from workers in their 20's and 30's:
Use every possible human connection you have, this includes your family, your family’s friends, anyone who can pluck your resume out of obscurity and route it to the right person at an organization.
Do as many practice interviews as you can, especially tailored to each type of position you're interested in.
Your first years don't define your career, this is a long game. What matters more than early wins is how you observe/grow, how you build your story, and how you create good habits.
Stop looking for your “dream job”, it probably doesn’t exist. Take any job in your field or at an organization you admire. Get your foot in the door and start building your resume.
Say yes to opportunities that come your way, you might end up learning valuable new skills and meeting mentors who help you down the line.