What's Your Retirement Number?
What will it take for you to retire comfortably? For years, people would contact me to help them figure out their “NUMBER”, as if there were one magic number that anybody could use. A recent oft-quoted survey from Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance tried to boil the results down to one number and (drumroll, please) it is $1.46 million, up “a whopping 53% from the $951,000 target Americans reported in 2020.”
Obviously, the survey result number is much higher than the median ($86,900) or mean ($333,940) amount of money held in a retirement account, according to the Federal Reserve. It is unclear how respondents determined their numbers. My guess is that they had $1 million in their heads and then tried to factor in inflation and longer life expectancy to come up with some number that vaguely resembled their specific number.
To help remove the guesswork, here are the steps that you should use to help crunch your retirement numbers. You can do this on your own, in consultation with one of the many retirement calculators out there provided by financial institutions. If you are not a do-it-yourselfer, then work with a Certified Financial Planner, but either way, you are going to have to do some of the work.
The hardest part is the simplest: calculate how much money you spend on a monthly basis. There, I said it! Regardless of how much money you earn or have saved, all financial planning starts at the same place: determining your monthly income needs in the future. The way to get there is to start with where you are today. Include the basics, like housing, food, utilities, insurance, health care. Then tally up the fun stuff, like gym or club memberships, going out for dinner, vacations. Don't forget to add in any expenses related to ongoing obligations you have toward others, like aging parents, adult kids or helping out with grandchildren.
The monthly need will be reduced by any income you anticipate receiving in retirement, including pensions, passive income from rental property or a trust, the income generated from your nest egg (savings, investments, retirement accounts), and of course, the all-important Social Security benefit that you will claim.
Before you write in and ask me whether or not Social Security will be there for you, the answer is yes, I believe it will be there. Social Security is the most popular government program and despite political rhetoric about cutting it, what is more likely is that the system will change to bolster its finances. That could mean higher FICA taxes or perhaps a larger share of earned income being taxed, in order to restore benefits to 100 percent of what has been promised, instead of the current numbers, which show that after 2033, the government will only be able to pay 77 percent of scheduled benefits.
Back to your retirement calculations. For many of you, the output may be unnerving. You might find that living to 100 means that you are going to have to save more money today. Or, you may have to work longer, though not necessarily doing the same thing. Many folks in their 40s find that they can transition to a different career or job in their 50s and 60s, one that will allow them to reach their ultimate goals, with a little less stress. I call this an "off-ramp", a way to slow down, without screeching to a dead halt. But you can only find that off-ramp if you put in some of the work upfront. In other words: you can actually influence your “magic number”, but only if you stop guessing and start planning.